MLB Free Pick - Arizona at Seattle

Arizona’s pitching has been good, with the team giving up 3.96 runs per game. Opponents have a .253 batting average against the Diamondbacks, which is 22nd in the league. Their 3.96 ERA is 15th, while their 1.28 WHIP is 17th. In his last start, Cecconi gave up two hits and two runs in six innings, leading to a 5-3 win over the Giants. They will need a similar effort if they want to get the win.

Rating: 2 Units

Jordan Hicks has not allowed more than two runs in a start this season. After three home starts, he has a 1.80 ERA. He is the most reliable force in this game and the reason that the Giants will have a lead after six innings. Pittsburgh's Martin Perez has been getting tagged lately (seven runs allowed in his last two starts), and the Giants have a .257 team batting average against lefties. Expect this offense to score a few runs early. San Francisco will hold on late against a slumping offense. 

Rating: 2 Units

Suarez (4-0, 1.36 ERA) has been the best pitcher on arguably the best starting staff in the majors. He shut down the Reds Monday night over seven innings of a 7-0 win in Cincinnati, allowing only two hits with a walk and five strikeouts. Suarez's current scoreless streak is the longest for a Phillies pitchers since another lefty, Cliff Lee, authored one that lasted 30 2/3 innings from Aug. 17-Sept. 10, 2011. Like Lee, Suarez succeeds more by mixing pitches instead of overpowering hitters. Suarez enters this game with a 2-0 record in five career outings against the Padres, two of them starts. He owns a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings, which doesn't include a win and save in the 2022 National League Championship Series.

Rating: 2 Units

St Louis has won 10 of its last 15 games played at Citi Field in the Big Apple against New York. St Louis has struggled a bit at the plate but on the mound has a 4.11 team ERA, which is not the best, but its ace on the staff will be on the mound Saturday. St Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has had a strong beginning to his season, allowing 14 hits and just two runs in 16.1 innings pitched, with the Cardinals winning two of his three starts. The only loss St. Louis has suffered with Gray on the mound was 2-0 to Milwaukee. New York starting pitcher Adrian Houser has been inconsistent in four starts. The right-hander allowed a combined three runs in two starts but in the other two starts, allowed a combined 13 runs in 9 Innings pitched. New York has lost three of the four games that Houser has started this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Denver Nuggets know how to win playoff games. Denver has won all three games and game three was their best performance of this series. This is not a good sign for the Lakers. The Nuggets are 5-0 in their last five playoff road games. While James and Davis have been solid, they don’t have the depth to beat this Nuggets squad as seen in game three. Aaron Gordon dropped 29 points for Denver. The Nuggets continue to dominate the boards. They have out-rebounded the Lakers in all three games including 51 boards compared to only 38 by the Lakers on Thursday. Los Angeles has not been able to score enough points in this series despite shooting 49% due to the rebounding margin. The Nuggets have held the Lakers to an average of 102 points in the series. They have now beaten the Lakers in 11 straight meetings.

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando has to play its best basketball to win again in game four, and while it won't win by double digits, I do believe it can cover the two-point spread. Cleveland didn't put up much of a fight in game three, and while it should compete better today, it won't be enough. Like they did in the first two games, the Magic kept the Cavaliers under their shooting average from long range. However, in game three, they easily dominated on the boards and kept Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen from scoring too many easy buckets at the rim. The return of Jalen Suggs was crucial, as he added 24 points on offense and helped make Mitchell (6-for-16) more uncomfortable than he was in the first two meetings. I don't expect too much to change in game four, with the Magic bullying the Cavaliers on their home floor to even up the series.

Rating: 2 Units

I fully expect the Bruins to wave the goal tandem, at least for this series and have Jeremy Swayman in net on Saturday night. Swayman has had the Leafs number this season with five straight wins and a dazzling near-96 percent save percentage in the two playoff games. The Bruins have dominated special teams in the series, scoring on 50% of their power play opportunities while only allowing one goal in 11 penalty-killing opportunities. Captain Marchand has once again done his job and is completely in the heads of the Maple Leafs heading into game four. The veteran winger has been an expert at this throughout his career and will certainly continue to agitate the Leafs in game four. The Bruins have done a lot of this damage without a big series from leading scorer David Pastrnak, who has just one goal thus far, and he is likely a timebomb that will soon go off. Ride with the Bs until the Maple Leafs can solve Swayman.

Rating: 3 Units

The Lightning look to avoid a sweep but this series has been one-sided and I see the Panthers dominating this game on both ends of the ice. The Panthers, who have scored 11 goals in the series, should pile on the goals with Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Panthers should limit the Lightning offense with Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to make plenty of big saves. The Panthers should win the game to sweep the series with a strong performance on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Knights have won five of their last six games and six of their last seven home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 15 goals in their last four home games. They’ve also played well on special teams, converting over 20 percent of their power play opportunities. The Stars have done a good job of killing penalties but they’re not playing well defensively, giving up seven goals in their last two games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Golden Knights in this game. The Stars have lost two straight games and three of their last five overall. They have struggled offensively and scored only six goals in their last three games. They have done a better job on special teams, converting over 24 percent of their power play opportunities. The Golden Knights have killed over 79 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up eight goals in their last three games, so expect them to keep Dallas’ offense in check. Go with Vegas to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

The likely loss of Robinson to an ankle injury is massive for the Knicks. Robinson was a menace on the glass in games one and two and gave the Knicks a legitimate option to harass Embiid when Hartenstein left the floor. With Robinson missing the entire second half, the Knicks' advantage on the glass disappeared. Game three was the first game of the series the Sixers won the rebounding battle, 36-32. Brunson broke out for 39 points but the Knicks bench had its worst game in game three as the Sixers seemed to focus in on the likes of Brogdanovic and McBride. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey continue to look for support and may have found some in Oubre in game three with his 15 points. The Sixers have a great opportunity to knot the series at two games apiece today and will do so with the Knicks bench taking a major hit without Robinson.